Article 50 Discussion

[fletch70]

During my lunch break I have just read the Daily Mail so I love on the planet called reality. Calais is moving to Kent and quite rightly. The French protect the British borders and the British expelled the French (would have to get visas).A very reasonable statements from Martin Shulz:'I refuse to imagine a Europe where lorries and hedge funds are free to cross borders but citizens are not.' So Brexiters will have to deal with thousands of illegal immigrants instead. AND all this for better future of your children.Bring it on then, I can't wait to see BRitain being taken from Europe and handed to whoever you welcome in Kent.

 

 

The daily mail reality

 

Oh give me a bleeding break , are you serious?

 

As for the french controls that is the opinion of one candidate for the french presidential Election or so I believe

[king12345]

The only person you are making any sense to Noah, is yourself!

 

BRAVO!!!

 

I was starting to think that I was going mad

[Noah1]

The daily mail reality

 

Oh give me a bleeding break , are you serious?

 

As for the french controls that is the opinion of one candidate for the french presidential Election or so I believe

 

The French will stop to protect British borders immediately after the article will be triggered. Read today's Daily Mail:'If Madame Theresa May wants hard Brexit, there will be hard talk too.'

[unclebulgaria67]

Brexit is unlikely to happen for one simple reason.

 

Economics !!!

 

The UK is far too intertwined with EU mainland countries for any separation to be a painless exercise. Once the reality hits home, most sensible UK voters are going to pressure the government into not proceeding with Brexit.

 

Theresa May has already promissed Nissan incentives to keep production in the UK and to deal with any issues caused by Brexit. Other companies all around the UK are going to demand similar treatment and government won't be able to afford it.

[obiter dictum]

Agreed, it will be political suicide for any Government if the UK car industry relocated into another member state. When price rises start to hit home next month due to the Dollar and Euro people will start to take a step back and think.

[silverfox1961]

If memory serves me right, wasn't the sweetheart deal with Amazon and the Republic of Ireland being investigated by the EU? Happy to be wrong of course. The point being that while in the EU, we follow the rules of trade laid out within the EU.

 

Outside of the EU, the UK can allow whatever deals they like without falling foul of the EU rules. They could even agree better deals with EU countries than they have already.

[unclebulgaria67]

If the UK leaves the EU single market, it is no longer subject to state aid rules and would just come under the standard WTO rules. This is subject to arguments in the government, as they are not sure the EU will do a tailored deal with the UK, where they can achieve a good deal on market access, without having to comply with various EU treaty obligations e.g state subsidies to industry, free movement of labour.

 

The point is the cost of UK government aid to industry to cope with any Brexit related issues. You cannot really just offer the Car manufacturing industry subsidies, without all other companies demanding the same treatment. Given that the UK already has government debt of £1600 billion and that Brexit is likely to cause the deficit to continue for longer, i doubt that Philip Hammond has any room in his budget to start being more generous to business.

[obiter dictum]

Government debt has increased by £555 billion since George Osborne took office in 2010, (May 2015)

Government debt now stands at 1.6 Trillion

Edited October 22, 2016 by obiter dictum

[king12345]

Once out of the EU, UK could negotiate a ad hoc tax for corporations like they do in Monaco.

Example: Amazon opens in UK and they only pay 5% corporation tax instead of 20%.

Or even better, pay a set amount and forget about percentage and calculations.

Considering that they make billions in turnover and they know all the loopholes to avoid paying tax, this could result in large sums for UK.

Many tax heavens do this already and they have more companies than people registered in their books.

Incidentally they also have no debts.

Why can't uk do the same???

Because of EU rules.

[obiter dictum]

People seem to think it is so easy we can negotiate our own Trade deals with the EU on exit. That is an illusion, why do you think the yanks are trying desperate with that failed TTIP?

 

Not only that the UK is a service and financial economy. With any trade deal we have to offer something in return.,. The simple fact is we no longer manufacture anything to offer in return. The Chinese will simply undercut us. That is the reality

Edited October 22, 2016 by obiter dictum

[unclebulgaria67]

Once out of the EU, UK could negotiate a ad hoc tax for corporations like they do in Monaco.

Example: Amazon opens in UK and they only pay 5% corporation tax instead of 20%.

Or even better, pay a set amount and forget about percentage and calculations.

Considering that they make billions in turnover and they know all the loopholes to avoid paying tax, this could result in large sums for UK.

Many tax heavens do this already and they have more companies than people registered in their books.

Incidentally they also have no debts.

Why can't uk do the same???

Because of EU rules.

 

I think people need to put aside any positive thoughts they have as a result of Brexit and look at the reality.

 

Within the EU there is tax competition, subject to rules. Ireland were offering some companies a corporate tax rate of 1%, until they got caught out by the EU and this is subject to ongoing arguments. The Netherlands also offers a lower tax rate than other countries.

 

UK government the same as any other government has to collect a certain amount of tax to be able to function. If the UK lowered its rate after any Brexit, then other countries would do the same. In the meantime, you have UK government budget that would need to be adjusted. This could mean an increase in income taxes, indirect taxes like VAT and cuts to various department budgets, which might mean frozen state pensions.

 

Remember that when it comes to the UK doing trade deals with other countries, there will be agreements on minimum corporate tax rates, subsidies to business, consumer safety,workers minimum rights etc etc. If say the UK offered a zero corporate tax rate to acheive higher employment in the UK, you can bet that the US would not simply accept this. They would take action against the UK and any US companies who moved operations to the UK.

 

I keep hearing Brexit supporters saying that the UK could be a central business hub trading with the world, but this forgets that other countries will also be competing for the same business, same raw material, same pool of highly qualified people etc. The UK after Brexit would be a small island nation of under 70 million and possibly outside of the EU market of over 500 million consumers. There is nothing preventing UK businesses from trading with the world whilst being in the EU. Jaguar/Range Rover sell cars throughtout the world, as does Rolls Royce Engines and many other well known British brands. It is whether the products and services are wanted at the price/quality being offered. The UK can't compete in many markets with China, as they have greater buying power and can produce products at much lower cost.

[unclebulgaria67]

This article on Brexit and its affect on the UK is a must read.

 

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/10/18/brexit-death-of-british-business/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NYR%20Hillarys%20library%20Brexit%20Henry%20Green&utm_content=NYR%20Hillarys%20library%20Brexit%20Henry%20Green+CID_4102111b906188414580af2c9b7bb8c3&utm_source=Newsletter

[Noah1]

If memory serves me right, wasn't the sweetheart deal with Amazon and the Republic of Ireland being investigated by the EU? Happy to be wrong of course. The point being that while in the EU, we follow the rules of trade laid out within the EU.

 

Outside of the EU, the UK can allow whatever deals they like without falling foul of the EU rules. They could even agree better deals with EU countries than they have already.

 

In exchange of what? You seem to underestimate European common sense big time.

[Guest]

I

 

Outside of the EU, the UK can allow whatever deals they like without falling foul of the EU rules. They could even agree better deals with EU countries than they have already.

maybe with countries outside of the eu. but unlikely 'to agree better deals with eu countries'. as will be trading with 'eu' and eu countries wld have to comply with their regs in doing so (which wld require the uk complying with whatever the eu says re). see the norwegian model for eg.

and, canada's ongoing attempts to agree trade with the eu.

[unclebulgaria67]

In exchange of what? You seem to underestimate European common sense big time.

 

Don't quite understand that and i am not sure Silverfox will either ?

 

The 'exchange' is the subject of negotiation between UK and EU. But don't underestimate the 27 individual countries having their own views, without the EU being unable to come to any collective deal to put on the table. Also it is not just the EU, as the UK has to strike deals with other countries where there is no current direct UK trade deal in place. It is routed through the EU at the moment, so countries such as US, Japan, China will want to look at the UK trade deal again. They might not offer the same deal as we have at the moment through the EU.

 

EU and commonsense is a difficult wide ranging issue to discuss. Somethings make perfect sense and others not so. You would have to provide an example of a trading issue where the EU might not give the UK a deal that meets with UK industrial requirements. Germany, France and all other countries will look out for their own interests. UK imports so much and will continue to do so, even if there are tariffs added, because they can't get stuff elsewhere at a cheaper cost.

[Noah1]

Don't quite understand that and i am not sure Silverfox will either ?

 

The 'exchange' is the subject of negotiation between UK and EU. But don't underestimate the 27 individual countries having their own views, without the EU being unable to come to any collective deal to put on the table. Also it is not just the EU, as the UK has to strike deals with other countries where there is no current direct UK trade deal in place. It is routed through the EU at the moment, so countries such as US, Japan, China will want to look at the UK trade deal again. They might not offer the same deal as we have at the moment through the EU.

 

EU and commonsense is a difficult wide ranging issue to discuss. Somethings make perfect sense and others not so. You would have to provide an example of a trading issue where the EU might not give the UK a deal that meets with UK industrial requirements. Germany, France and all other countries will look out for their own interests. UK imports so much and will continue to do so, even if there are tariffs added, because they can't get stuff elsewhere at a cheaper cost.

 

I referred to your opinion that the UK will agree better deals with EU because I doubt it.

[barry normal]

Hello everyone, just joined the site and I must say I'm enjoying this thread especially - I don't really see what it's about, it just seems about fragile egos rather than any concerted effort to get to understanding, but hey ho I guess that's the way with most internet forums.

To add my two penneth, we the UK voted to leave the EU and for your average joe on the street that means a stop to the swamping of public services by young Eastern European who want maternity services, schools, and pushing up the cost of housing because they are happy to live ten people to a three bed house whilst working for minimum wage - things that indigenous people who are not here solely to make money would ever tolerate, so they go on benefits, and when those benefits are denied they go on esa for (perhaps understandably) anxiety & depresssion, etc

[unclebulgaria67]

I referred to your opinion that the UK will agree better deals with EU because I doubt it.

 

I agree. brexiteers have an arrogant stance on UK ability to obtain trade deals which are good for UK businesses.

 

I was sat watching motorway traffic the other day for a few minutes and in that time i would estimate that about half of the vehicles were German made e.g BMW, Audi, Mercs. British drivers will still want to own such vehicles and would not be bothered paying a higher price due to tariffs. German drivers wanting Rolls Royces, Range Rovers etc would not be bothered paying similar tariff levels either.

 

But if you are an UK farm owner selling crops to EU mainland and see WTO tariffs of 23% on your produce, you will see a massive effect on your trade. It will make some trade totally worthless and farmers would have to find UK ior mon EU buyers. I say 23% tariff as that is what i understand is the tariff for many agricultural products under WTO rules.

[unclebulgaria67]

Hello everyone, just joined the site and I must say I'm enjoying this thread especially - I don't really see what it's about, it just seems about fragile egos rather than any concerted effort to get to understanding, but hey ho I guess that's the way with most internet forums.

To add my two penneth, we the UK voted to leave the EU and for your average joe on the street that means a stop to the swamping of public services by young Eastern European who want maternity services, schools, and pushing up the cost of housing because they are happy to live ten people to a three bed house whilst working for minimum wage - things that indigenous people who are not here solely to make money would ever tolerate, so they go on benefits, and when those benefits are denied they go on esa for (perhaps understandably) anxiety & depresssion, etc

 

I can see some of these issues, but it is not all down to population increases from EU migration. The UK economy has expanded over the last 20 or so years, with nearly 32 millon people now in work. The problem is that UK businesses are not paying the wages relevant to the current times and are reducing standards. The number of workers on zero hours contracts or who are on temporary contracts and people working many extra hours without pay. Also businesses are avoiding tens of billions in corporation tax, while directors and shareholders are looked after. I am not anti business and believe in investors/wealth creators gaining a fair share. But if business is not paying a fair level of taxes, it means government finds other taxes to increase or has to make spending cuts.

 

The UK and many other countries have relied on immigrants to grow their economies. You might think that government will reduce net migration levels after Brexit, but i am not convinced. UK universities make money from foreign students, many of whom will stay in the UK after their studies. NHS will still recruit staff from around the world, as UK government does not invest in enough training and medical degree courses. Care Homes will still recruit from abroad. Financial Services will still recruit from abroad etc etc. Net migration to tens of thousands will never happen and even Nigel Farage stated that he did not think it would ever happen. All Farage believed was that the EU should not have automatic workers rights in the UK, while the UK had to restrict non EU migration. It is only the Tories that mentioned tens of thousands and most Tories don't believe in it either.

[Guest]

wonder how many exitors previously voted labour when labour had their 'open door' policy re immigration.

 

yep, the eu cit cost to the public purse re such services is miniscule in the grand scheme of things. a typical exit post, disregarding the facts, and describing alot of what alot of lazy brits do to the system. as mentioned before, sort out the domestic system first.

[unclebulgaria67]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

 

It amazes me just how little thought there has been in regard to what Brexit the government wants and whether it safeguards the financial future of the UK. There are some senior ministers and London Mayor who think they can negotiate a special status for the City of London finance centre, so that it has good access to the EU market. I cannot see Frankfurt or Paris turning down the opportunity to grab billions of Euros of annual finance business from London. Once the jobs start leaving, you will see a knock on effect, with money and influence leaving the UK. Those pensioners who voted Brexit might not find it funny seeing the government make them pay for voting for Brexit.

[Consumer dude]

Making people pay for Brexit sounds like blackmail to me..

[unclebulgaria67]

Making people pay for Brexit sounds like blackmail to me..

 

Not really. If the UK has less money due to Brexit hurting the economy then the government will have choices to make e.g tax increases and/or spending cuts.

 

If older generations voted for Brexit, then they should accept the consequences of their votes, as they were told by David Cameron and others that Brexit would have economic consequences. It was the leave campaigners who said that Cameron/Osborne etc were being negative and making claims that could not be proved. If it turms out that the warnings by remain campaigners were correct, then people who voted leave can't really complain.

[obiter dictum]

Me thinks we need to wait until next week when the Courts of Justice gives its decision with Arrticle 50

[determindator]

 

If older generations voted for Brexit, then they should accept the consequences of their votes, as they were told by David Cameron and others that Brexit would have economic consequences. It was the leave campaigners who said that Cameron/Osborne etc were being negative and making claims that could not be proved. If it turns out that the warnings by remain campaigners were correct, then people who voted leave can't really complain.

 

The older generation through WW1 and WW2 know how propaganda works and how threats by our neighbours can be thwarted and negotiated. More experience of life, can see long termly. It's excuses this can't be sorted out amicably because others are throwing dummies out of prams in Europe. It's not Xeno to be concerned with how our population has expanded in the last few years. I've posted figures before. Lot's of other topics like fishing we don't need to be told how to handle sustainable fishing.