Should we trust Sunak or the next PM to fix the Country's problems? (title revised 24/10/22)

[unclebulgaria67]

What would you like to see Truss do in the first week as PM to help tackle the  problems the UK is facing ? 

 

If Government were going to conduct an emergency budget, what should the new Chancellor of the Exchequer announce ?

 

Who would you like to see in Truss's first cabinet and why ?

 

Should there be an early General Election, so the electorate have a chance to elect the Government of their choice ?

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Clearing out the Johnson no.10 team is probably a sensible move.

 

A new PM will want a fresh start without people from inside no.10 telling former colleagues that had left, that Truss was dumping the hard work completed previously.

 

If the speculation is true that Truss will sign off an economic package that will increase national debt by hundreds of billions, then I can see many Tory backbench MP's being very critical.

 

Cutting taxes, increasing spending on public services, while also subsidising energy companies to keep tarrifs reduced, is a very risky move. 

[unclebulgaria67]

Some encouraging news from Ukraine, is that the offensive being fought by Ukraine and issues on the Russian side, is leading to territory gains being achieved. And Russia is struggling with insufficient solider and equipment levels.  

 

I have met a number of Ukrainians that came to the UK and quite a few have returned home.  They were grateful for the help the UK have provided but are now confident that Ukraine will win the war soon, so want to be there to support their families as well as their country.

 

A US former military leader recently commented that he thought Putin could be ousted and the Russian federation would split up.  There has been some news media comments suggesting that many in senior positions in Russia are now very unhappy with Putin and want him gone.

 

Truss must be hoping that there will be changes in Russia soon that enables gas trading to be restored to previous arrangements.  UK and other countries will not be able to generate enough energy to meet the supply demands, particularly during the Winter months.  So this is not purely a cost/debt issue, but also a question whether energy supply disruptions may cause severe problems for people and businesses.

[unclebulgaria67]

Find the article regarding no.10 Chief of staff troubling.  Having someone in Downing Street facing the issues mentioned in the article, is going to cause UK Government problems. And at the moment Truss cannot afford to have any distractions from trying to steer the UK out of an economic crisis.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Visited Poundland this week and they had very little for £1.

 

Change of name ?  Perhaps IMFLand (predicting future after IMF bail out UK economy)

 

And I noticed Supermarkets appeared to be struggling with stock levels, as I guess the manufacturers are having to pay much more for ingredients and therefore new prices have to agreed on a daily basis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

This will be popular with some Brexiteers?

 

Liz Truss sparks cabinet row with plan to increase migrant numbers to Britain | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, Kemi Badenoch, the Trade Secretary and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Business Secretary, are...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Slight increase in people supporting immigration.

 

Vote leave supporters still mostly against immigration.

 

Remain voters still supporting immigration.

 

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/attitudes-towards-immigration-british-future-ipsos-march-2022.pdf

[unclebulgaria67]

The Tories at the next election will have a problem with discussing immigration.

 

Appears Truss wants more immigration to fill job vacancies, but how many would be tolerable to most Tories and Brexiteers?

 

If at the time of the next election, immigration numbers are at similar levels to before Brexit, then I can see many Brexit voters asking themselves why they voted leave.

 

And Tories control of borders with hundreds arriving in dingies on the shores of Kent every day will be difficult for them to explain away.  Why is the UK not working with France to tackle this problem more effectively?

[unclebulgaria67]

There is talk that so many senior Tories will give the party conference a miss, that it won't go ahead.

 

And the amount of criticism from so many different former senior politicians and respected journalists might be difficult to ignore.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Government faced with demands for more spending and no easy targets for cuts, is going to face a challenge in honouring tax cuts just announced.

 

What we are seeing at the moment could be start of biggest crisis UK has seen for a very long time. A Government with a majority, but without much support, could be forced out, as Tory MP's decide they cannot continue supporting Government with their votes in Parliament.

 

The following request for a bailout of one industry is going to be the followed by others.

 

British Steel's Chinese owner seeks huge government aid package

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Jingye Group has indicated that British Steel's two blast furnaces will not be commercially viable without hundreds of millions of pounds...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I was listening to an LBC programme where they were discussing the recent mini budget and callers were convinced that Truss/Kwarteng were delivering on promises made to Bankers, hedge funds and others that were looking to make money quickly, against the UK's interests.

 

Strong accusation to make that a new PM/Chancellor would deliberately implement a strategy to benefit financial interests of a few, against the interests of the country.

 

The LBC presenter suggested that the callers were taking seriously a conspiracy theory.

 

Truss/Kwarteng may have followed a deliberate policy strategy of trying to go for quicker growth which will have benefited Bankers and hedge funds, but they thought they were doing so to help the UK economy.  And in the short term this is making it look like a terrible mistake, but they are hoping that the City of London helps the UK economy to grow more quickly than if they had not held the mini budget.

 

My problem with current Government handling is that they did not take seriously enough the requirement to fully explain their policies and to ensure their budget was fully costed with independent scrutiny of the OBR. Had they just announced the help with energy bills and left the tax changes to the normal budget cycle, then the issues affecting UK economy recently may not have happened.

[unclebulgaria67]

Good article discussing current state of play.  If Government wanted to cut spending, what can they cut ?  Appears to me that the Tories have been making economic mistakes since 2010 and Truss cannot rescue the sh*t position the UK has ended up in by implementing what she thinks are quick fixes to get growth.  And the Government cannot use Covid and Ukraine to cover up for poor decisions made over 12 years.

 

 

A lesson from 'Reaganomics': The collision of theory and reality could prove fatal for PM Liz Truss and Tory party

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Rob Powell says Kwasi Kwarteng's eerie echoes of the Reagan era's promised economic revolution - not least tax cuts, supply-side...

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s business partner given senior minister role | Conservatives | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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City financier who co-founded investment firm with business secretary is made trade minister

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Very smelly actions by Government, which I am surprised they have been able to get away with.

 

I thought that there was a standards panel that looked at those given peerages and also looked at those offered ministerial positions.

 

Does make you wonder whether they think they will lose the next election anyway, so they might as well try take advantage of opportunities to make some money while they still can.

[unclebulgaria67]

UK at significant risk of gas shortages this winter, warns energy regulator

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Electricity supplies to people's houses could be disrupted if the country runs short of gas.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

The Croydon MP who is chief secretary to the Treasury whose firms have a record of going bust - MyLondon

WWW.MYLONDON.NEWS

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One company had losses of more than £2million and left the taxman on the hook

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Why does Truss think that a 'disrupt' variety of economic policy would be good for the UK economy and popular with voters.

 

If Truss is thinking of radical changes to business practices, then this could mean a reduction in employment rights.   Not sure most voters would find this acceptable.

 

How would disrupting the markets help the UK increase economic growth?

 

Can't see Truss lasting long, as the information coming out of Birmingham conference suggested that at least half of the Tory party are against the policies advocated by Truss and her ministers.

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Thought Truss voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum?

 

I have listened to a number of Andrew Marr comments on the current problems going on in the Tory party and I think they are spot on.  Truss does not have the support of the Tory parliamentary party for many of the Government's policies and it was a mistake for the Tory membership to vote for her to become leader. 

 

I could see many backbench groups being formed to oppose various policies and demanding changes or they will vote against. And I can see a number of Tory MP's crossing the floor to either join other parties or sit as independents until the election.

 

I would put a small bet on there being a general election during 2023.

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Could Gove be on a political journey and end up joining the Lib Dems ?

 

There are many Tories on the Liberal side of politics who may not like the direction the Tories are heading and are therefore thinking of resigning the Tory whip, before moving across to other parties.

 

The Tories are going to lose many seats to the Lib Dems at the next election. Could Gove win Surrey Heath as a Lib Dem ?

[unclebulgaria67]

The best course left to the Tories is to oust Liz Truss – and install a caretaker leader | Simon Jenkins | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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A unifier like Michael Gove could prepare the party for effective opposition, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Long term Tory member who Is a Catholic Priest is now ashamed to be a Tory. Interview with the Times is in link below.

 

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1577686651538739200?s=20&t=7YPaS7GLsKPxgvGhtupdBA

[unclebulgaria67]

Really insightful video from George Monbiot

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Appears that the question is on what day next week will Truss resign and be replaced by a caretaker PM, while Tory MP's vote for a new leader/PM ?

 

Senior Tories hold talks to discuss ousting Liz Truss to ‘rescue’ party | Conservatives | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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As new chancellor Jeremy Hunt rips up prime minister’s economic plans, Conservatives plot route to replace her

 

[unclebulgaria67]

This video is amusing, but not really funny, as it must be a pretty awful situation for anyone to take on a leadership role and then realise they don't have required personality, experience or skills. To be a PM now requires someone to be pretty exceptional, with experience of running a large complex organisation, as well as the personality to communicate effectively what they want to achieve.

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I think this vlog from Peter Oborne sums up what I think may be true about Truss.  i.e., Truss/Kwarteng took deliberate actions for the benefit of Hedge fund managers and very wealthy people.