Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

Channel4 News have interviewed a previous Chief Scientific Officer who talks about how the UK could have managed the pandemic and about No 10's 'communications police'.

 

 

[honeybee13]

Thank you hightail, I should have added about the companies getting no response. Actually, the PPE seems to be Chinese.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/20/exclusivemillions-pieces-ppe-shipped-britain-europe-despite/

[honeybee13]

This is the Twitter thread he's talking about. The guy sounds credible.

 

 

[honeybee13]

I wouldn't wish the virus on anyone, SD.

 

It does seem at the moment that the PM has learned a lot about Covid and is taking a more cautious stance than some of his cabinet colleagues on lifting the lockdown.

[honeybee13]

A British consortium is aiming to make large numbers of gowns for the NHS.

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/consortium-aims-millions-protective-gowns-143435421.html

[honeybee13]

The public health experts I've heard all say that systematic testing, contact tracing and isolation are an essential part of the fight to control the virus. And it shouldn't just be people with symptoms because symptomless people can still transmit Covid to others.

 

Changing the subject a bit, Piers Morgan of all people is coming out as a hero of the people for asking tough questions of ministers. He's been quite outspoken in the clips I've seen.

 

This morning, he's saying he believes Simon McDonald told the truth to the Foreign Affairs select committee yesterday, when he said that the UK didn't join the EU PPE ordering scheme because of a political decision. As I do, Piers thinks he was leaned on to issue that ridiculous retraction a few hours later.

[honeybee13]

Hightail, I don't know if this answers any of your questions about mortality rates. From the FT today, Chris Giles is saying the death rate is at least twice what HMG are saying it is.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

[honeybee13]

It isn't realistic to lock all those with underlying conditions and over 70s in their homes for the rest of the year

 

It would have to be properly organised. We have various family members and friends in their 70s who are trying to stay at home but they have to eat. They can't get a delivery slot with a supermarket because of the demand and they aren't on the government's vulnerable list so they don't have priority. They don't have neighbours who will do a complete shop for them so the only option is to go out.

 

If we want to shield the over 70s then if they have people going in to see them every day, the carers have to have the right PPE or we'll get the same situation as has happened in care homes with inadequately protected carers spreading the virus.

[honeybee13]

This is Prof Allyson Pollock writing in the BMJ on how care homes were neglected in Covid planning.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1465

[honeybee13]

BN, before I read the article. This government thinks it can solve any problem with tech [or sometimes with maths if Cummings is involved]. Like the Irish border, I could never see how that would work, certainly in the time frame. Another country that uses tech as one of their counter-measures said something like you can't big tech your way out of something that has no tech.

 

The UK is going to train contact tracers 'within weeks'. Better late than never. I wonder if it's possible to use some of the 750,000 NHS volunteers who don't seem to have a lot to do. At the very least they could do the phoning part of the follow up, I'd have thought.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/army-of-thousands-to-help-trace-coronavirus-victims-bhhdbtwgj?shareToken=6387881cd92488d86f3dc66eeb7601a1

 

ETA: From the article:

'The NHS is developing a smartphone app that logs contact through Bluetooth. However, Allyson Pollock, a professor at Newcastle University, insisted that “we don’t need fancy expensive apps”, telling the BBC that even San Francisco was deploying a “low-tech model using people and telephones”. She estimated that training courses for volunteers, teachers or students could be done in a few days.'

 

 

[honeybee13]

There's a blistering article from John Ashton today on how HMG has dealt with Covid.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-crisis-who-is-the-government-trying-to-fool-us-or-itself/

[honeybee13]

Who saw the Panorama report last night? It looks like upsetting viewing.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-52440641

[honeybee13]

Richard North doesn't mince his words, does he?

[honeybee13]

Labour would have had access to the Exercise Cygnus report though, wouldn't they? From what I've read, senior Tories looked at it, decided it was too scary and didn't do anything.

 

Cygnus was about a respiratory virus.

[honeybee13]

Here are two interesting articles on coming out of lockdown in Ireland and the US.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/ireland-extends-covid-19-lockdown-to-18-may-before-phased-exit

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/03/donald-trump-reopen-us-economy-lethal-robert-reich

[honeybee13]

Somebody pointed me towards this article from the Institute of Actuaries. They've done their own figures which don't necessarily agree with the government's ones.

 

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/cmi-assesses-impact-covid-19-total-uk-deaths

[honeybee13]

Do you mean the government? My understanding is that they're declaring figures for hospital deaths where people have tested positive. I'm not sure about fatalities in care homes.

 

IMO the excess mortality rate is a reasonable guide as a comparison. Mortality rates are one of the main things actuaries do, so they should know what they're talking about.

[honeybee13]

I'm really not sure about the app. I did see a headline that it might not be legal earlier today.

 

Test and trace has to be one of the ways to control this. As you and a number of experts say, the local infrastructure is already there and they could use some of the 750,000 people who volunteered for the NHS to do some tasks. At the Independent SAGE meeting today, one lady said the government seem to want to centralise it and privatise it. I didn't hear anyone say they thought it was a good idea.

 

Why reinvent the wheel when they have qualified and trained people who could start doing this now? I daren't think what they could spend with Serco.

 

 

[honeybee13]

That's about as clever as sending people back to unprotected care homes when they were infected, TJ.

 

This is a good article on testing and tracing and probably shows why a call centre isn't going to cut it.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/100000-tests-results-coronavirus-self-isolation

 

 

[honeybee13]

I've seen suggestions of using environmental and public health people with councils and they say that volunteers could be trained up in some aspects of keeping in touch once a qualified person has done the initial assessing.

[honeybee13]

This article is comparing the experiences of Vietnam, 0 deaths from Covid and the UK with an estimated 50,000 according to them. Vietnam seems to have learned from its experience with SARS.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/05/04/vietnam-another-lesson-in-how-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

[honeybee13]

Well, the 50,000 figure is in line with the excess mortality figures from @ChrisGiles_ and the team at the FT have calculated, plus the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

[honeybee13]

7 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

 

Excess mortality is not a reliable measure of Covid deaths. Even if you think it is then why doesn't the piece use Vietnam's to compare it with?

 

You're entitled to your opinion, of course. And I'm entitled to mine, so I'll put my trust in the FT and the IFoA until they're proved wrong.

[honeybee13]

In this article, the FT explain how they calculate their figures. I posted something from the IFoA the other day on this thread.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

[honeybee13]

Ireland seem to be doing well, don't they? I've seen a couple of comparisons of the difference between the Republic and NI.