Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

Panic in Wuhan as China bars 11m residents from leaving

Supermarket shelves are bare and the sense of panic is palpable in Wuhan after the Chinese city of 11 million people was put on lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Public transport out of the city has been suspended in response to the outbreak, which has now killed 17 people and infected almost 600 in China and spread to three other Asian countries and the US. However, the World Health Organization has so far refrained from declaring it a public health emergency of international concern.

• US case. Doctors have been using a robot to treat the first person diagnosed with the disease in the US, a man in his 30s who recently returned from China and who is said to be in “satisfactory condition” at a hospital in Everett, Washington.

• ‘Warm meat’. A market where animals are freshly slaughtered rather than chilled has been identified as the source of the virus. Experts say the Chinese appetite for so-called “warm meat” has long hampered efforts to prevent such disease outbreaks.

 

Guardian US morning briefing

also see:

https://www.ladbible.com/news/news-coronavirus-mutating-and-adapting-after-leaving-nine-dead-in-china-20200122

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-23/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-Cases-climbing-but-China-s-responding-fast-NtPRQmwODC/index.html

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

That's too scary to think about, TJ.

[tobyjugg2]

I'm not sure as yet just how much this is political rather than medical

 

That the virus' mutate is a fact of them

That they are mutating quicker seems to be a significant fact

 

That anti-biotics don't hit viruses is not the issue, as they are used to treat some effects of severe virus outbreaks

 

But I question whether locking down the 'region is somewhat like shutting the stable door after a billion horses have bolted, although there is no genuinely 'right answer.

[tobyjugg2]

I think of far greater importance is the poor people who have been convinced by those who say the MMR vaccine causes autism and so those people, thinking they are protecting their children rather thygan putting them at risk, dont get those children vaccinated.

 

 

The reality of course is that ANY risk from the vaccine is astonishingly small, and the benefits are astoundingly large.

 

its a sad fact that in the UK we are close to the level of 'none take up' where we will lose our 'herd' immunity despite many kids inheriting a level of immunity from their inoculated parents, that is by no means certain. Just like with the Victorian horror of TB which still lurks waiting.

http://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/herd-immunity

 

So, unlike politicians lies, when we do get an outbreak those kids who weren't inoculated and contributed to that loss of herd immunity will suffer the utterly horrendous consequences first and hardest.

 

 

 

In fact, I'm so convinced that if it were suggested by a reputable source that there was evidence that a fresh booster on top of the ordinary ones just could aid in improving immunity

... I'd be queuing up and suggesting all my loved ones  do the same.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

You're right about there being more epidemics in Europe, TJ. My parents had me innoculated for anything that was on offer and I've been fine.

 

I had measles when I was little, before there was a vaccination and it's scary to hear that people can die from it.

[tobyjugg2]

The UK has actually lost its WHO 'elimination' status

 

Why have we lost elimination status?

WHO defines measles elimination as the absence of circulating measles, in the presence of high vaccine coverage, along with good systems to identify cases of the disease. In countries that have eliminated measles, measles can still occur, but these will be isolated cases that only have limited spread within the community.

The UK initially achieved WHO measles elimination status in 2017, based on data from 2014-2016.

However, in 2018, there was a marked increase in the number of confirmed measles cases, with 991 confirmed cases in England and Wales, compared with 284 cases in 2017.  Furthermore, the same strain of measles virus (called B3 Dublin) was detected for more than 12 months across 2017 and 2018. Based on this, WHO determined that the UK could no longer be consider as ‘eliminated’ and that transmission of measles had been re-established.

The UK has actually lost its 'elimination' status on measels

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2019/08/19/measles-in-england/

 

 

 

 

 

and anyone who isn't concerned, should be

Latest update

In England, 301 new measles infections were confirmed in the period between April and June 2019 compared to 231 in the first quarter of 2019. Cases were reported in all regions except the North East. Most cases (266) were in unvaccinated individuals aged 15 years and over.

Continuing the increase seen between January and March, 2,028 cases of mumps were also confirmed in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 795 last quarter. The increase in mumps has been mostly driven by outbreaks in university students. Cases were reported across England, predominantly in young adults aged 15 to 34 years.

 

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at Public Health England (PHE) said:

Although it is normal to see mumps outbreaks in universities every few years, we are seeing a significant number of cases, the highest quarterly figure since 2009.

Coupled with the continued measles outbreaks these figures clearly demonstrate the need for sustained high vaccination rates.

We’re urging parents and their children, no matter how old they are, to check they’ve had 2 doses of MMR. Measles is easy to catch and can kill. Vaccines are there to stop the spread of disease and save lives.

It’s never too late to protect yourself and others.

Nearly half of the mumps cases this quarter were unvaccinated. While the mumps component of the Measles, Mumps and Rubella (MMR) vaccine is highly effective at protecting young children, immunity can reduce over time. Therefore, older teenagers and adults who received two doses of MMR in childhood can still get mumps although this is generally mild compared to those who are unvaccinated.

One new case of rubella re-infection in a pregnant woman was also reported.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mmr-vaccination-call-following-high-numbers-of-measles-cases

 

[honeybee13]

John Crace in the Guardian says it's OK, Matt Hancock is going to save us.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/23/dont-panic-dr-matt-hancock-will-protect-us-from-the-coronavirus?CMP=share_btn_tw

[hightail]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Just like with the Victorian horror of TB which still lurks waiting

My brother in law died of TB a couple of months ago.  Apparently it's rife in South Africa where he lived. 

[honeybee13]

That's very sad, hightail. Was your BiL ever vaccinated against TB? I think TJ said it's another disease that we thought we'd conquered and is coming back.

[BazzaS]

a) BCG isn’t 100% effective against TB. I’d still rather have it than not, though.

TB never quite went away.....

b) Measles is a horrible disease, and highly infectious. The anti-vaxx’ers who say “natural immunity is best”  seem to forget measles KILLS, (not always, but enough to be a concern)

Either early, or late as the patients brain turns to mush (SSPE : subacute sclerosing panencephalitis). Avoidable, through vaccination.
Still, the anti-vaxxers are right in a way (about ‘natural infection boosts your immunity’)  : if you catch measles and die, you certainly won’t catch another disease, ever again .......

 

c) There isn’t a vaccine against the coronaviruses. SARS, MERS, and the new one (2019-nCoV). Whilst lots of people who get it “will just get a cold”, some will get very ill (and go to hospital, which is why it is a risk for outbreaks in hospitals,  as SARS was), and some will die. Nobody yet knows in what numbers and what proportions.

Time will tell : including just how well it can spread person-to-person. Wuhan is certainly seeing cases in people who haven’t visited the “wet market” where the initial cases had been (and where it is suggested the virus first ‘jumped’ from animals - now felt likely snakes -to humans).
 

d) There isn’t a reliable antiviral against coronaviruses. Some viruses have antivirals active against them, many don’t.

[BazzaS]

8 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

One new case of rubella re-infection in a pregnant woman was also reported.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mmr-vaccination-call-following-high-numbers-of-measles-cases

 

I thought that must be a typo, as conventional wisdom is once you are immune to rubella you are immune.

 

I’ve checked the original source:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/853589/hpr4119_mmr.pdf
 

and that is indeed (p.6) what is says.

I’ll have a dig around, and see if I can find out what the experts are saying about it.

 

(So, if the first rubella report for her was a false positive, or if she’s had her previous immunity “wiped out” : such as having needed a stem cell transplant, some immunological treatments, or even having had measles, which is now believed can ‘reset’ immune systems.... another good reason to be vaccinated!)

[London1971]

All Viruses mutate. Mostly they either become easier to catch / less deadly. Harder to catch / more deadly.

 

Evolution favours the successful, the common

cold and Norovirus are incredibly successful because they do not kill their hosts and as a result 1 person keeps walking around and spreading them everywhere.

 

Ebola is incredibly unsuccessful because Said victim is unable to move far and dies rapidly.

 

Some experts have now worked out that in order for 7 people to have been infected abroad, using flight passenger numbers from Wuhan per day, and the number of people that the airport serves. That there must be many thousands of unreported cases out there, either mild or asymptomatic. The fact that 25 elderly, immunocompromised people have died (that’s probably at least 4 times higher) means the death rate and profile is similar to seasonal flu.

 

Google Imperial  college coronavirus report

 

 

[BazzaS]

Accurate ethos, but inaccurate factually.

 

not “All viruses mutate”, and not “viruses succeed if they don’t kill their host”.

 

Smallpox didn’t mutate. Smallpox killed many of those it infected. It was incredibly ‘successful’, but was eradicated (made possible by it having a fixed target for vaccine, no carrier state, and a massive international co-operation)

 

Polio : similar, though for a few countries that it remains endemic in, efforts to eradicate it are hindered by attitudes to vaccination and local politics.

 

Influenza “mutates”, both by “drift” and “shift”. Kills some it infects, but still incredibly successful. Even where it kills more (e.g. 1918 Spanish Flu, where it was recognised for killing young fit people), still very ‘successful’

 

Ebola: it isn’t “unsuccessful”. It remains a massive risk. The last outbreaks were only curtailed by a gigantic international response.

To describe Ebola as ‘unsuccessful’ doesn’t pay tribute to the healthcare workers (civilian and military!) who went and set up Ebola Treatment Centres, at great personal risk. Some were infected despite all the precautions they took, not all survived. Those that weren’t infected still worked in awful conditions (doing their work wearing full protective equipment, in searing heat, is very demanding).

The UK health worker who got infected has suffered some longer term effects of the illness (and also had the emotional challenge of facing a disciplinary around the circumstances of her return! Though was cleared by that tribunal)

 

WHO have declared (in the past) Ebola outbreaks as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

2019-nCoV hasn’t (yet) been declared a PHEIC (but watch this space!).

 

Part of the issue there is that PHEIC is binary : (“is or isn’t”). This may yet change in future to a more graded response, so that e.g. 2019-nCoV gets a classification of “not quite, but almost, a PHEIC”, allowing WHO (politically) to do more before it gets to be a PHEIC.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by BazzaS

[tobyjugg2]

29 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

Accurate ethos, but inaccurate factually.

 

not “All viruses mutate”, and not “viruses succeed if they don’t kill their host”.

 

Smallpox didn’t mutate. Smallpox killed many of those it infected. It was incredibly ‘successful’, but was eradicated (made possible by it having a fixed target for vaccine, no carrier state, and a massive international co-operation)

 

 

 

 

Incorrect

 

ALL virus' mutate including smallpox, just the rate and ease with which they mutate varies. Coronavirus (to which I was specifically referring) seems to mutate VERY quickly.

and your other point depends entirely on what is meant by 'successful'  ... with Londons definition being far broader and fitting IMO.

 

- unless perhaps it was an artificial virus intended to simply kill - in which case its more arguable that the person who created it was successful rather than the virus (sic)

 

 

https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/releases/2012/08/researchers-uncover-how-poxviruses-such-as-smallpox-evolve-rapid.html

" Aug. 16, 2012 – Poxviruses, a group of DNA-containing viruses that includes smallpox, are responsible for a wide range of diseases in humans and animals. They are highly virulent and able to cross species barriers, yet how they do so has been largely a mystery because of their low mutation rates. "

 

Interesting that a mutated version of smallpox is one of the treatments for Aids

 

Small-pox - To differentiate it from the great pox (syphilis)

 

 

 

 

addendum

Also consider the different causes of mutation:

https://www.britannica.com/science/radiation/Damage-to-genes-mutations

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

clarification

The mutated form of smallpox is perhaps more accurately described as a delivery mechanism for a treatment for aids

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

great that this sort of info is becoming available away from paywalled researchgate papers.

Helps to know what to look for though.

 

 

https://scienceblog.com/2070/smallpox-mutation-helps-body-resist-hiv/

[London1971]

All of this is good debate, better than the conspiracy theories popping up all over Twitter. I’m happy to stand to be corrected any time.

 

IMO this virus is going to spread everywhere, millions will be infected, most will have a mild version, a minority severe. Some will die, as a percentage not many, but it will be like a bad flu season.

 

All of the lockdowns in China won’t change anything.

[BazzaS]

I can’t reply fully ATM, but as a quick response:

 

a) Smallpox is a virus. HIV is a virus. Yersinia pestis (cause of bubonic plague) is a bacterium.

hardly surprising then that “HIV is more phylogenetically related to Smallpox than Yersinia pestis”. That proves nothing.

 

b) Science blog : “Smallpox eradicated 1978”

Factually incorrect. Last naturally occurring case 1977. (Subsequent “lab release case” where a University photographer, Janet Parker, died). WHO declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. If they can’t get their dates right, can you trust the peer review of their paper (was it peer reviewed?)

 

c) “The poxviruses” : they are talking about the family of 60+ viruses (including smallpox, cowpox, and orf), of which smallpox is just one.

OK then, to clarify : minor attributes of smallpox would mutate (the reason that countries interested in biowarfare would try to gain samples of the most virulent). The vaccine target was stable, giving one strain to target, no mutations in vaccine target. None. Zero.

 

I agree that the lockdowns in China aren’t guaranteed to work. Absolutely better than no lockdown, but the genie may already be out of the bottle.

[tobyjugg2]

Apparently 14 day incubation period, so they are at least 14 days too late

[BazzaS]

Wrong (again!)

 

it isn’t a 14 day incubation period.

it is less but no-one yet knows for sure.

 

(I’ll explain more when have more time, but if A appears to infect C is this A -> C or A-> B -> C)

 

So the UK’s case definition to qualify for investigation  is:

a) appropriate symptoms with

b) Exposure to Wuhan (expect this to be expanded geographically) or to a confirmed case (outside of Wuhan), within the previous 14 days

 

That isn’t the same as “incubation period is 14 days “

 

[BazzaS]

If they felt the incubation period was 14 days, the case definition period would be longer, to account for natural variability

[tobyjugg2]

17 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

b) Science blog : “Smallpox eradicated 1978”

Factually incorrect. Last naturally occurring case 1977. (Subsequent “lab release case” where a University photographer, Janet Parker, died). WHO declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. If they can’t get their dates right, can you trust the peer review of their paper (was it peer reviewed?)

 

 

 

agreed to a certain extent, but the various 'eradication' dates are somewhat arbitrary

but that link was an easy to read blog entry referring the findings of the reasearchgate paper and other things, not the paper itself.

 

Sars type incubation period is 5-14 days with the CDC saying (as info increases)

 

" The median incubation period for secondary cases associated with limited human-to-human transmission is approximately 5 days (range 2-14 days).

In MERS-CoV patients, the median time from illness onset to hospitalization is approximately 4 days.

 

 

 

projected likely worst case scenarios should ALWAYS be considered

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/mers_middle_east_respiratory_syndrome/article.htm

 

10 days at least - 14 days for working on spread and infection

 

 

And ALL virus mutate.

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[BazzaS]

Eradication date ‘arbitrary’.

Ahh well, if you know better than WHO, little chance I’ll have to persuade you!

[tobyjugg2]

Bazzas, you quote 2 dates in your post

 

 

21 minutes ago, BazzaS said:

 

Factually incorrect. Last naturally occurring case 1977. (Subsequent “lab release case” where a University photographer, Janet Parker, died). WHO declared smallpox eradicated in 1980. If they can’t get their dates right, can you trust the peer review of their paper (was it peer reviewed?)

 

 

 

and ALL virus mutate.

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

so how did that last death happen Bazzas

 

"The virus wasn’t quite dead, however — just confined to medical research labs, awaiting one last shot at humankind.

Six years after TIME heralded its death, a microbiologist at a British medical school inadvertently let the disease loose and infected a staff photographer, Janet Parker, who worked in an office above his lab. Her friends, family and casual acquaintances were quarantined, and since one coworker had visited North Dakota after Parker became infectious, the smallpox scare crossed the Atlantic. American health officials, per TIME, kept the visiting Brit under surveillance.

Parker became the last known victim of smallpox when she died on this day, Sept. 11, in 1978. The outbreak itself claimed no other casualties. Parker’s mother contracted the disease but recovered, although Parker’s father died of a heart attack when he visited his ailing daughter while quarantined in the same hospital."

 

and as we know, close variants are still are around and can MUTATE.

We need to remain vigilant.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2