Mutating Corona Virus

[unclebulgaria67]

@BazzaS excellent detailed response.

 

If reports are correct, there will be mobile testing units touring the country and where necessary home visits for testing.  My current nearest testing station is over an hours travel away.

 

Self testing given the points you raise,  does appear to be a least credible option.

[unclebulgaria67]

If I had the contact tracing app, it would not show very much during a lockdown. Particularly, if I start working from home, when my office will be about 20 feet from my bedroom.  They will think that a hamster has downloaded the app.

 

I just wonder how long any partial lockdown is sustainable for.  The economic impact could be worse than having let a herd immunity policy run. I am not saying that I think that a herd immunity policy should have been implemented with few restrictions introduced, as the numbers of deaths may have been much greater.

 

When the lockdown measures are reduced, if there is a rise in new cases, you will see lockdown measures reintroduced. It could beome very difficult to manage.   People will get fed up, particularly during the Summer months.

 

Until someone mentioned the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968, I had not really thought about it. But that led to 1.5 million deaths around the world. I am not old enough to remember that, but can anyone remember how Governments reacted to that ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Heard about a case, where a lady went to work feeling unwell and collapsed in the office.  A security/reception officer who was first aid trained, went to offer their assistance.  This happened in the London area.

 

A few weeks later, both the lady and the security officer died in Hospital from Covid-19.

 

If you are not feeling well, do not put others people at risk. Stay at home and follow the NHS guidance.

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/what-to-do-if-you-or-someone-you-live-with-has-coronavirus-symptoms/

 

If people are sensible enough, then the country can relax the lockdown measures.  But if people go to work or to the shops while feeling unwell, they risk causing an outbreak and this crisis will just keep running with hundreds dying on a daily basis.

 

In the past, I have worked while I had a cough/cold and generally feeling unwell.  I  won't be doing this again, until this virus is behind us, which will presumably be once a vaccine programme has been delivered.

[unclebulgaria67]

Nice to have a coordinated plan emerging from Government with all important questions answered !

 

I have been working in an office throughout this crisis and from about the middle of March, staff that needed to be working from home for health reasons, have been home and will remain there for at least 3 months.   Before the end of March they were provided with laptops or mini pc's and they have been working normally since. Yes there have been connectivity problems and working from home, particularly those with Children to be kept occupied must be very difficult. 

 

And there are plans for more staff to be provided with mini pc's so they can also work from home, as I think the same as many  office based employers, they are thinking that same, that this crisis provides a brilliant opportunity to fully test working from home.  They can then look to close offices or reduce the size of offices, which will significantly reduce costs.  

 

I am lucky that my office is serviced by a company that has cleaners going around constantly throughout the day and the whole building is organised around social distancing. We have adapted the way we work, trying to keep as safe as possible. 

 

The concern must be that people are encouraged to return to work in some companies, where they cannot properly  organise around social distancing ( due to office/factory issues) and also are not willing to pay for the extra cleaning that will be required.   And also is the local transport infrastructure with social distancing enforcement able to provide efficient and safe services ?

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Is this an issue of language used ?  "Leaving people to die", may be the wording of dispute.

 

There was a TV News item the other day, where it was claimed that very elderly people in Hospital who had Covid-19 were being allowed to return to care homes.  The viewers were clearly left with the idea, that basically the Hospital was unable to offer treatment or was prioritising who they treated and the care home was the best place to be. I took it that this meant that the care home staff would be managing end of life care.

 

So there is no leaving people to die as such,  but care home staff providing appropriate end of life care.  

 

This is why the statistics are showing many deaths in care homes.  Either they are not admitted to hospitals or they are released back to care homes.

[unclebulgaria67]

Good article in the Sydney Morning Herald about viruses that exist on Earth and the problem in detecting the next virus that leads to a pandemic.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/national/scientists-tried-to-predict-covid-19-here-s-why-they-missed-it-20200515-p54tgb.html

 

Scientists estimate there are around 1.67 million viruses circulating in mammals and waterfowl. In eukaryotes – all complex life, basically – the rough guess is around 87 million.

[unclebulgaria67]

I find some of the foreign newspapers much more interesting to read than UK newspapers.  They tend to have more of a focus on the actual subject matter and do not get distracted as much by Politics.  

 

Politicians are generally about as much use as chocolate teapots during a crisis, because they are always thinking about the politics first and how people will react to their decisions or what they say.  

 

During this crisis every time a decision is made  which may be politically difficult, they justify it by mentioning "experts".  But of course they are very selective which "experts" they have listened to and what advice they have followed.  The advice that has come from SAGE will not be published for a long time, most likely after the next general election.

 

Remember Michael Gove during the EU referendum when I think he said "who needs experts ?"  The answer Michael,  is that you need these "experts"  and we all need the "experts" to just provide the information that is essential, so we all understand the situation.

 

Time for a revolution I think !  Get rid of the political mentality of trying to divide people by using communication methods, which have nothing to do with looking after the interests of most people and is about serving the politicians own interests in ensuring that their own political vision is preserved.  

[unclebulgaria67]

If a vaccine was offered by UK Government in say October 2020 with less than normal trials being conducted before it was given the go ahead by regulators, how many of you would be willing to have the vaccine or allow your Children to receive it ?

 

Personally I would be very reluctant to have such a vaccine until a large number of people had received it and there was no evidence emerging that it had caused serious side effects.

[unclebulgaria67]

My prediction, is that the Government will stop daily news conferences in the near future. 

 

Once the media spotlight starts to focus more on what has happened over the last few months, there are going to be many difficult questions asked.

 

I am hearing that Government are looking at making changes to get the country back up and running before July. Bus companies have been asked to get services running to 80% of the pre covid-19 timetables as soon as possible. My local bus company have apparently said this is not possible, as many drivers are not able to work due to current health restrictions i.e. shielding.   So if all the public transport companies are feeding this back to Government, my guess is the health restrictions will be relaxed.  

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I think i have heard the political advice before, that "once political/media advisors become the news for more than the normal 48 hour news cycle, they have to be removed".  

 

So if Dominic Cummings is still the main news story after today, then I would expect a decision will me made. Probably an apology, followed by a temporary change of role away from Downing Street. 

 

The worst thing about this is that it takes concentration away from looking at how Government can prepare the country for a steady move to a new normal safe way of life, with more businesses open and people able to enjoy forms of leisure they have been stopped from enjoying.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

I think this political spat that is happening could have very serious consequences in the near future.

 

With the Summer weather now with us and people wishing to enjoy holidays, as well as day breaks away from home, I can see the social distancing measures totally breaking down.

 

Weston Super Mare Hospital has had to warn that they cannot take in any more patients A&E, due to a large increase in Covid-19 cases.  

 

These coastal resorts if they start having large numbers of visitors, may see a rise in Covid-19 cases and this will spread, causing the country to suffer a major second outbreak of the virus.

 

Dominic Cummings is one man, but it is what the news story may cause, that is the problem.

 

Spain is saying they would welcome British holidaymakers from July, but the Government will require a 14 day quarantine when they land back at home.  I can see many people either totally ignoring the quarantine requirement or just not going back to work for the 14 days, trying to take the time off sick.   

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

 Cummings will offer an apology for this panicked reaction to his wife becoming ill with Covid-19 symptoms and  say he now realises his actions were not within the spirit of the rules announced by the Government.  

 

It will be a continuation of what Boris said yesterday and with no offer of resignation.  

 

And then Boris at 5pm will reinforce the Government rules as they stand on Social Distancing. 

 

Or Cummings will resign as the worry is that the Tory party will start looking more closely at whether Boris is really up to the job.

 

Real shame that politics has become involved, when the subject is so serious.  It is not just the deaths due to the virus, but many businesses will shut for good and some people will be unemployed for a long period.  And every time there is a recession, there are awful consequences. 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Question-    Can the Governments track & trace app really work  ?

 

There is news that the app has crashed,  but let us presume that the app is working.

 

In the building where I work, due to the construction, my mobile phone signal is not very good, unless I am sat near a window.  In an average day, I am normally sat at the same desk,  but I may move around the building for socially distanced meetings or for other reasons e.g toilet break, making a drink. 

 

I don't normally have my phone switched on all day and I may not take it with me, if I move to another area of the building.  But let us presume that I have my phone switched on, with Bluetooth  swtiched on, so this track & trace app can work .

 

What is the working distance of Bluetooth on most phones and could the app cause too many alerts for people to self isolate ?    

 

If you have one person who is tested as having Covid-19 sat in an office socially distanced in one corner, but has colleagues in the same office,  will this app think everybody sat in the same office has had contact with this one person for more than 15 minutes ?  This could lead to a lot staff suddenly having to leave their workplace to go into self isolation.

 

And what about visitors to workplaces ?  If employers are not recording time/date and movement information, the contractors phone may cause staff in a building to receive the app alerts, even if they have not had any direct contact for the 15 minutes.

 

I can see this track & trace app causing a lot of disruption in many workplaces.

[unclebulgaria67]

There is a serious gap in the Governments track & trace ( test & trace) policy concerning contractors who visit more than one companies premises on a regular basis.

 

Have heard of contractors causing temporary closure of several different offices, when one or more of the contractors staff have tested positive for Covid-19, leading to closure of offices while they are subject to deep cleaning.  And also people that have met the contractors and been in close proximity, have been required to self-isolate as a precaution.

 

Contractors who visit different workplaces regularly must be putting themselves and the people they visit at risk and this must be a risk that has been considered, yet I am not sure I have read any specific advice to employers.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Many questions being asked about Government decisions at the moment, where someone with financial links to the Conservative party, has received a positive decision.

 

You would think that Ministers would have to apply very strict rules, so that decisions made can be properly explained if there was a later inquiry.

[unclebulgaria67]

Re the meat processing plant virus outbreaks, think I have read that the virus likes a cooler temperature range.  Which may be why some scientists have predicted that northern hemisphere countries may see a second wave in the Autumn.  

 

Hopefully this won't happen as I think enough damage has already been done and I dread to  think of the consequences of further national lock downs. 

[unclebulgaria67]

Very good question. This is what happens when policy is made up as they go along. It may be a numbers/costs issue. Thousands of people will be landing back on a daily basis and if they offered a test (assuming most are negative)in lieu of 14 day quarantine, people would do that. Particularly if they will lose 14 days pay.

[unclebulgaria67]

5 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

Whoever it was said that smaller and poorer countries have managed the pandemic better because they didn't rely on data, they took a public health type cautious and preventative approach. I hadn't thought about it that way before but I think it's right.

 

Not really thought about this, but yes this is probably correct.

 

If you look at some of the Asian countries they were already accustomed to wearing face masks and they are possibly more accepting of Governments imposing restrictions to freedoms. 

 

But comparing data between countries is complicated by many factors, as there were different strains of the virus  ( 4 I believe ) as I understand it, with Europe affected by a different strain to that suffered in Asia.  The one that infected people in Europe was more powerful as I understand it.  This is what I have read, but this was a month or so ago, so may have been disputed by subsequent research.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Are the UK public ready and willing to accept another lockdown from September ?

 

Media reports are saying that due to schools reopening, Government will need to consider closing down Pubs and other meeting points, as they are expecting some Children plus the school staff to become infected. Therefore they want to control the number of contacts people have. The issue I have with this, is that parents of Children and partners of school staff will be mixing with people on public transport and in workplaces. If Pubs in particular were more risky than say an office, why are they open now ?

 

Also according to other reports in todays media, Government will be looking to shield over 50's, if there is an increase in virus cases.

 

Personally I don't mind another lockdown. Happy to work from office or home as necessary. But I am lucky that I am in a job that is not going to be directly impacted by other lockdown. There will be many businesses that are only just about surviving with any Government help. If there is another lockdown, I dread to think about the economic consequences.

[unclebulgaria67]

"Are the UK public willing to accept that a significant number of children may end up killing their parents as a direct result of Johnsons' policies?"

 

listening to LBC radio station at the moment and they are discussing this very topic.

 

Not just Johnson/UK policy, but other countries are facing same issues.

 

Agree that schools will need to apply social distancing, so reduced class sizes and they will have to provide teaching via Zoom or similar.  Any Children with health conditions or living in a household with others with health conditions, will need to have an individual risk assessment. Same for all school staff.

 

Personally I cannot see that schools will be ready to open fully in early September. They are going to have carry out a large number of risk assessments and this is going to take time.

[unclebulgaria67]

Conspiracy theories about population controls events are nothing new. 

 

Problem is always that 99% of the worlds population are totally reliant on experts and those leaders who may or may not apply the work of the experts.

 

Next year, most UK citizens could well be offered a vaccine. From what I have heard/read, most experts think a safe vaccine should be ready in a years time.  They will then work through a priority order, so healthcare workers are likely to be first on the list.

 

In the meantime, it is a case of going with the flow of whatever Government wishes to do, as I don't think people have much choice. Of course people should ensure that they are working in safe conditions and employers are required to conduct risk assessments. But the UK does have to get back to a workable environment, as the consequences of further mass lockdowns are too dire to contemplate.  

 

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

When will most schools actually re-open in September ?

 

And when they open, will they be providing teaching over the number hours 9am to 3pm  ?

 

I am thinking of the school I attended, which was a large Victorian building, with many modern extensions.  The classrooms which could accommodate about 35 Children elbow to elbow, will only be able to accommodate 20 at the most with any reasonable distancing.   Or does the whole class  of say 35 stay in a bubble and the teachers move around to teach the different subjects ? 

 

I can see many schools opening later in September, not for all pupils for all days and not doing the full hours.

 

This is going to be very difficult to manage for all those concerned, including parents looking to return to work. 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

This is what I think will happen.

 

Schools will be told by ministers that they have to open for all pupils, unless there is a local lock down in operation.  And pupils will be required to attend, unless they have confirmed health condition, where Doctors have advised against attendance.  Parents will face fines for not ensuring their Children attend.

 

Trace, trace system relies on people reporting and having tests done.  Many people who think they just have seasonal colds/flu won't bother to report or have tests done.  Plus many people with Covid-19 don't feel any symptoms, but have been found by recent research to be just as good at infecting others, as those with identifiable symptoms. 

 

I can see many localised lock downs been implemented in a sporadic way  and it will make it incredibly difficult for people.  And for organisations and business, the on/off nature of the lock downs will be worse than having a lock down for say 1 month..   If for example,  you had a school based in one city area that was not subject to lock down, but a number of teachers lived in a lock down area, you would question whether they should be commuting to work.  Is the journey essential, risk of spreading virus risk?    

 

Hope that Government have really detailed guidance and plans to deal with all of the issues that people are going to face in only a months time.  As soon as you have millions of people meeting in classrooms around  the country and then returning home to family, there is reasonable expectation of the virus numbers increasing.  And flowing from that you will have the many sporadic lock downs which will be very difficult to manage. 

[unclebulgaria67]

Lots of local lock downs become a more widespread lock down ?

 

Is this likely to happen in the Autumn ?

 

Hopefully this won't happen, but this virus has not gone anywhere, as shown in New Zealand with no new cases for 100 days and then suddenly an outbreak.

 

Based on the cases reported worldwide increasing, I think it is pretty likely that  by mid-September with the Schools/colleges re-open, that there will be a large increase in cases. And this will lead to actions by Government which will put the country back to where we were a few months ago. 

 

As for people going back to work in offices, if they have been working from home, that is a bad idea, particularly, if people have Children living with them. 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Problem UK has, is that it is an international hub for business and tourism. And UK citizens are perhaps more likely to travel abroad than say many other counties.

 

Government were late in applying lock down and implementing travel restrictions. When there is a future inquiry about this, I think it will confirm that there was conflict between Government Ministers and the many advisors including SAGE.

 

In other countries they have been far stricter in applying travel restrictions. In Australia, they have totally closed borders between states, when one state has reported a certain number of new positive cases.

 

I think the UK appears to now be following a reasonable steady approach with schools gradually returning, but it is a shame there have been last minute announcements. I expect an increase in CV-19 cases and local lock downs, which is going to make it very difficult for many months ahead. Businesses will continue as they are with office workers based at home for some of the time and I think this will be a permanent change.