Mutating Corona Virus

[unclebulgaria67]

Ok, let us imagine that a plane lands at Heathrow with say 10 infected people, who show no signs of suffering any virus. They then go on trains, buses etc to their place of stay. 

 

The number of people potentially at risk would be very large and the spread would happen very quickly.

 

At the moment, I would not be concerned, as China have put in place movement controls,  but if these failed, then the outbreak could spread more quickly than any country could cope with.

 

Do the Government/NHS have sufficient contingency measures in place to deal with any such crisis ?

[unclebulgaria67]

Worrying new case in Surrey where person appears to have caught the virus in the UK.

[unclebulgaria67]

Experts are saying the virus is likely to be present in parts of the UK, where people have come back from Italy and other hot spots.

The person in Surrey may not have personally been in presence of a carrier, but someone they have met has been.

Did you see that Wetherspoons have apparently said that those staff who self quarantine following advice from health services will not be paid.

With Civil Service, if staff have had health services advice to not go to work for 14 days, once they have contacted line manager and it is accepted it relates to this virus, the absence can be treated as special leave. But the absence can be part of overall absence management.

[unclebulgaria67]

Government are going to bring in legislation apparently, so they can implement controls.  Presume that this means that if they wanted to lock down an area, closing places of work, schools etc, they can do so. 

 

You would think they already have such powers. But I guess that it may not be specific enough to cover an outbreak of a virus, requiring controls on people movement.

 

Government has to be careful, otherwise they risk people panicking and buying huge amounts of food supplies, just in case they are housebound for 14 days or more.  

 

Easter holidays are only a month away !

[unclebulgaria67]

The issue is that, if you have one person with Corona virus in say a household of say 4 people,  the other three people are going to self isolate as well.  If it spreads and affects many households, then you have bus drivers, doctors, nurses, teachers etc etc who are not working.  So the impact is much greater than authorities may currently be basing plans on.

 

I am not sure there is much that can be done, which will avoid this being very disruptive.  It has spread and people are walking around  with the virus unknowingly spreading it to others.  

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Until this happened. I did not know the difference between an anti-bacterial hand gel and hand sanitizer gel. 

 

Anti-bacterial is just something that might reduce bacteria and what is required to kill the germs is either liquid which contains at least 60% alcohol content or plenty of soap and hot water for at least 20 seconds.  And don't just clean your hands, you have to wash up to your elbows.

 

Not that I am an expert, just now a bit paranoid.  Every time someone coughs or sneezes, it sets you on edge 

 

Spain have just closed their airspace due to 1500 new cases in 24 hours.

[unclebulgaria67]

From 5am Tuesday 17th March US to suspend all UK travel !

 

Appears world is going to close down for a few weeks.

[unclebulgaria67]

France now has 4,499 confirmed cases, up from 3,661 on Friday, officials say.

Some 91 people have died in the country after getting the virus, up from 79 on Friday

[unclebulgaria67]

Bizarre !  Shetland has had 11 confirmed cases and Bristol with a lot bigger population has only had 5 confirmed cases.

 

I do wonder about the origins and spread of this virus.  

[unclebulgaria67]

The washing up to your elbows advice was given by a Doctor on a TV local news programme, as best practice.  Was not explained, why this was required.

[unclebulgaria67]

 

 

https://youtu.be/H2E1t3yMXgE

Good Youtube explanation of the virus symptons.

[unclebulgaria67]

Apparently, according to some psychologists, the reason people are stocking up with toilet rolls is not just in case they are self isolated for 14 days so don't want to risk not having any, but because they are seen as large comforting packages i.e. The size of a packet of toilet roles and the softness, is a comfort against the anxiety they are feeling.

 

If you believe in such psychology !  I suppose it could make sense.

[unclebulgaria67]

Has Government reacted in a measured way ?

 

The problem with listening to the experts, is that their advice changes, as new evidence emerges. So a Government that is following the expert advice, appears to be inconsistent and is either applying too many measures or not enough measures.

 

Politicians can never win in these situations. Easy to criticise decisions, but would you want to be in their shoes at a time like this ?

[unclebulgaria67]

I am going to have potentially unlimited overtime due to this virus.  Have lost many staff to self-isolation, as  they are following the advice given.  And now the schools are closing, there is very little alternative child caring options, so parents will be taking time out as well.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Please think about supporting local charities over the next few months.  In many areas of the country there are Hospices which are supported by shops selling items to finance the homes that they run.  

 

In my area, a Hospice charity is having to close it shops after today due to Corona virus and therefore may not receive the income that is normally generated.

 

If you are able to offer the charities any financial support, many of them have websites to enable you to do this and I am sure they will be very grateful.   

[unclebulgaria67]

If they imposed a marshall law type situation, they would only have forces in major towns and cities patrolling in any numbers. For smaller downs, they would just have local Police driving around periodically just checking what was going on. And in most cases, a polite word from two meters, would be enough, to get people to disperse. If people refused, then not sure what would be done. 

 

Most people if told to lockdown in their homes would do so. 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Herd immuntity can apparently work. It is how this is done in a controlled way. You don't want too many people to be seriously ill or die at the same time.

 

And Corona virus is apparently not one virus, but one that has slightly different variations. So some scientists think that it is possible that people could fall ill with several strains of the virus.

[unclebulgaria67]

Can you imagine another 3 months of lock down ?

 

Possible public disorder events may be triggered. 

 

Apparently some shops that have closed are taking no chances and removing anything of high value into warehouse storage. Don't know whether this is true or just rumour .   Have seen some boarding up of windows and  shutters on doors in some premises that expect to be closed for a long period.

[unclebulgaria67]

Have read the Richard North blogs. Yes they do make sense.

 

I see Trump is blaming the WHO, saying they sided with China too much going back a few months and by not recommending stronger actions to contain the virus, it allowed it to be spread more.

 

Does Trump have a point ?  If China was locked down earlier, with flights incoming/outgoing stopped, would it have made any difference ?

 

The problem with this virus is that many people have it, without showing any visable symptons. Therefore any lockdown will stop the spread temporarily, but as soon as lockdown over, you will have more outbreaks occurring.

[unclebulgaria67]

I think this lock down will continue until at least the end of April, given the number of people with the condition is too high to stop the social distancing measures.  

 

And the testing of 100,000 per day, does not appear to be achievable. 

 

And I am not sure we know enough about the virus.  It is worrying that over 50 people in South Korea who had already tested as having the virus, were infected again.  Or the virus never cleared from their systems.

 

How many people in the UK and elsewhere are going to the shops, working etc, when they have the virus, but are not showing any symptoms ?

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

No doubt there will be inquiries into this, not just in the UK, but also in many other counties as well as organisations, such as the WHO etc.

 

I think it makes sense to organise pandemic response measures on an International basis.  There should be agreements on what basic measures should be taken, as soon as any dangerous virus outbreak is discovered.  For example, lockdown within a relevant area should be implemented within x amount of time. A ban on international flights to/from the area concerned applied within defined time period.  There is likely to be a long list of contingency measures and wealthier countries are going to have to help support poorer countries, so they have the resources required.

 

It might be the case that we will see draconian measures being implemented as a result of Covid-19 and life will never be quite the same.   I am not a scientist, but it appears to me that we are seeing a start of a period, where the science lags behind the health threats that we will encounter.  

 

And what about the general hygiene rules that Countries have to ensure as minimum standards.  If it is true that live animal markets in China helped cause the virus, then I think the world that trades with China, has a right to expect changes to be implemented in China. And the same for other Countries where the same issues might apply.

[unclebulgaria67]

The cases in South Korea must be concerning, where people have tested positive, have recovered ( so it was thought) and the virus has then somehow reactivated in their systems.  They have apparently ruled out being reinfected and think the virus remained. 

 

Seems a bit of a tricky virus, which may be difficult to get a grip on.  At the daily press conference the Doctor advising Government stated that even when there are reduced numbers of people in Hospital, he expected people would continue to become infected with the virus throughout the country for many months. So this lock down might be eased in say a month, but there may still need to be measures taken perhaps on a local level, depending on numbers of cases verified

[unclebulgaria67]

I was watching a news programme earlier and there was an item on how Chinese University  research departments were given official guidance by the Government, that they must not produce any reports on where/how the virus was generated.

 

Definitely questions that will need to be answered, given that research laboratories in Wuhan had apparently been carrying out research into Coronavirus obtained from Bats, before this Pandemic started.  

[unclebulgaria67]

Anyone thought how it is going to be possible to deliver 1-1 training or any work, where you need to physically be next to someone to complete tasks.

 

 If the country is going to be back at work in offices/factories around the country,  i think we are going to see face masks being worn, if you need to be within 2 meters of others. And this will have to be the case until the scientific advisors to Government believe it is safe for face masks not to be worn.

 

And those staff who have underlying health conditions are going to be at home working ( if this is possible) for quite awhile longer than the current 3 months. For those staff with health conditions who cannot work from home, we are going to be in a difficult position, as companies will not want to pay their wages for too long and Government may not want to step in to continue paying the wages to maintain jobs.

 

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Apparently when you have the tests done at one of the stations set up, they take a swab from the throat so it makes you gag and the swab from the nose is also uncomfotable as they penetrate to the top of the nose.

 

I guess that this is to get the best sample possible.   People taking the samples at home may not be as thorough and therefore you wonder about accuracy.