Mutating Corona Virus

[hightail]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Just like with the Victorian horror of TB which still lurks waiting

My brother in law died of TB a couple of months ago.  Apparently it's rife in South Africa where he lived. 

[hightail]

On 23/01/2020 at 18:04, honeybee13 said:

That's very sad, hightail. Was your BiL ever vaccinated against TB? I think TJ said it's another disease that we thought we'd conquered and is coming back.

He was but as I understand it protection from the vaccine only lasts for a limited time and the reason we vaccinate young teenagers is because it covers for the time people are 'most' vulnerable.

 

What came as a total surprise to us was that we assumed this was a disease which attacked the lungs/respiratory system and it isn't necessarily specific to that part of the body at all.  What's going to result in a continued rise in the UK is a combination of ignorance and lack of GP appointments.  Lack of an NHS in South Africa definitely contributed to BIL neglegting to seek timely treatment whereas my experience locally is that it's unlikely to be available here anyway.

[hightail]

7 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

A thorough scrub with warm soapy water is surprisingly effective in many areas

Yup.  Wash your hands is a remarkably good strategy.  Another is not to be old or immunocompromised to start with.  From the various reports I've read the % death rate  has been adjusted downwards more than once.  Meanwhile the December figures for our 'ordinary' annual flu don't make particularly pretty reading but nobody has triggered panic mode.

Public Health England said the number of flu cases confirmed in hospitals in the week to 8 December was 472, up from 330 the week before. There were 124 new admissions to intensive care or high-dependency units for flu, up from 80 the week before.
There were eight deaths in intensive care units in the week to 8 December where flu was a factor – the highest number this season and taking the total death toll for the UK to 15 over a nine-week period.
In an alert to NHS bosses and GPs, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer at the Department of Health and Social Care, said: “Surveillance data indicates an increase in influenza cases in the community. Prescribers may now prescribe and pharmacists may now supply antiviral medicines for the prophylaxis and treatment of influenza at NHS expense.”

 

[hightail]

11 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I apologise for mentioning this, but people are dying or afraid of dying

My point was that the fear being generated is disproportionate to the current threat. Initial under reporting of cases gave an inflated picture of the percentage death rate and images of cities in lockdown do look like a disaster movie so I understand why.

This article is worth a read for some perspective.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/27/what-is-coronavirus-symptoms-sars-china-wuhan

 

 

 

 

 

[hightail]

6 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

A prof on science blog has been (for the last couple of days) gazzumping an announcement due tomorrow (thurs) and he says it will be epidemic

I have thought it inevitable to be honest though still think the media coverage is creating a climate of fear and creating headlines which cause unnecessary worry.

[hightail]

Do you mean TV news or other media?  I’ve found TV/radio to be reasonably measured but get some headlines come up online which would make you think it’s going to wipe us all out.  

[hightail]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

When some of our own news outlets spin constant crap  as hightail says, its even easier for Putin.

Someone on BBC radio this morning referred to it as a 'deadly' virus.  Why the need to add such adjectives?

 

[hightail]

19 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

although it is deadly aka it kills people - about 2% of those known to be infected.

- possibly nearer 1% if there are far more people infected than is believed - as seems likely

There's a lot of other things just as 'deadly', the difference being they aren't unusual or newsworthy. 

[hightail]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I was thinking back to this sad but inspiring story the other day, the village of Eyam in Derbyshire during the plague. Article from the Guardian about whether people now will or would be selfless during a pandemic.

They will because it's easy to be these days.  Online shopping means you aren't cut off from supplies, people don't need to go out.  You don't even have to cut off contact with people thanks to skype and facetime.

[hightail]

8 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Worrying new case in Surrey where person appears to have caught the virus in the UK.

They’re reporting it as the first case caught in the UK.  How do they know?  It may be the first case as such needing medical attention but surely that’s all they can say.  There could be cases where the symptoms were so mild they’ve gone unnoticed.

Edited February 29, 2020 by hightail

[hightail]

They've done tens of thousands of tests and only around one thousand were positive.  All those negatives were only valid for that moment, same people could test positive a few days later or may have had the diease previously so I'm not sure they tell us anything useful. 

[hightail]

I think they are working on a test which will tell if someone has had the virus as well as if they’re currently infected.  Guessing that means one which tests for antibodies rather than the virus.  That would give more info and be worth doing.

[hightail]

If you know who has had it you can send them back to work whereas currently we have thousands of people in self isolation who needn’t be.  That would make a huge difference to essential services and even volunteers.

Edited March 17, 2020 by hightail

[hightail]

I think we've got it about right.  It is a balancing act and, let's be honest, effectively herding sheep.  We don't have the manpower to enforce a complete lockdown from the start and if we'd done so people would have got a false sense of security, got bored and not complied.  There's no point comparing us with other countries, we aren't other countries.

[hightail]

8 hours ago, London1971 said:

Yup , you all know I hate Johnson but I think the government has things about right. on this. That's on the economic side also.

I’m no fan of Boris either but I have to grudgingly admit he seems to have got his act together.  The bumbling buffoon persona has been put aside.

Somehow we have to come out of this at the other end of the nightmare with a functioning country.  It isn’t like some movie script where we all emerge into the sunshine after a couple of weeks, it’s a long haul.  

Edited March 18, 2020 by hightail

[hightail]

5 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

I cant see schools opening before Sept unless they get wholesale testing out and the results warrant it.

I've had the feeling from the start that's the plan.  I have tenants whose business relies on children in what was my elderly aunt's place.  They have gone from successful business to zero overnight.  She died at the beginning of this month so I've been able to agree with the other executor and beneficiary that we reduce the rent on their home to £0/month for three months at a time.  We'll 'review' every three months but we don't realistically expect to see any rent (or be able to put the house on the market) until the beginning of next year so we can either take the worry off their shoulders or be nasty.

[hightail]

1 minute ago, honeybee13 said:

I'm very sorry about your aunt, hightail, my condolences. I hope she's in a better place now.

 

HB

Thank you. Very old, far from unexpected.  We live in 'interesting' times and my focus now is on the living.

[hightail]

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-normal-life-not-161826397.html

[hightail]

11 minutes ago, snowdragon said:

Absolutely disgusting and uncalled for, no  wonder the virus is spreading 

I'd seen that.  It's truly unbelievable isn't it.  Unfortunately Darwinsim doesn't work in this situation, they don't hurt themselves, only others.

[hightail]

Isn't that the same sort of thing people with really bad sleep apnea use? 

[hightail]

On 11/04/2020 at 09:35, tobyjugg2 said:

Only reason I can think of is that they aren't accurately reporting all the people being tested

 

Perhaps people like Dalglish who was apparently tested 'just in case' when he went in for something else not being included.

My father was tested on admission to hospital with a completely unrelated issue, he didn't have any symptoms.

[hightail]

46 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Absolutely we should produce our own. But then you have UK manufacturers saying that the government has ignored their offers of help. They really don't seem to have done much before 1st April.

 

I've also read a headline today [can't remember where atm] about the UK still exporting PPE to Europe.

 

I saw that too.  It did say the companies exporting are only doing so after offering to keep it in this country and getting no response. 

[hightail]

Does anyone know if the figures on new admissions to hospital with the virus are recorded and published?  Surely we should be seeing some worthwhile results by now if the incubation window we've been given is correct.  The government are giving out a daily deaths figure but that will be the last thing to tell us if this lockdown policy is effective.  From what I've read the percentage of deaths without a known underlying issue has stayed constant at around 5%, roughly 40 a day when the total is around 800.  Makes me wonder if just shielding the vulnerable would be as effective while giving us a chance to save jobs and minimise future economic misery.

[hightail]

As I see it that’s a fair assessment UB.  The idea was never to stop us all catching the virus but to stop us all catching it at once so as not to overwhelm the NHS.  We appear to have a good idea of who is likely to be badly affected and one very large group within that is the over 70s.  I’m sure I’ve seen somewhere it’s 50%.  Most of those are already paid to stay home so continuing to shield the vulnerable wouldn’t be so costly, certainly wouldn’t compared with the current arrangements.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by hightail

[hightail]

19 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Chinese doctors in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged in December, say a growing number of cases in which people recover from the virus, but continue to test positive without showing symptoms, is one of their biggest challenges as the country moves into a new phase of its containment battle.

Those patients all tested negative for the virus at some point after recovering, but then tested positive again, some up to 70 days later, the doctors said. Many have done so over 50-60 days."

Do we know if these were people who were badly affected, moderately affected, symptomless?  By definition they weren’t the worst affected because they obviously survived.

 

All only worthwhile knowing if you intend to test of course which we have spectacularly failed to do.