Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

He does make one good point though which has been batted from one post to another

Policy regarding respiratory infection outbreaks and should Covid have been treated differently to flu?

 

Seems to me that the procedures in place for flu should have been followed until some evidence defined otherwise, but wasn't.

 

Would anyone ship thousands or millions back from anywhere with even a potentially highly infectious mechanism in process and just shunt them out into the country?

- no-one with sense

 

There would and should have been whatever checks were available, with returnees VERY definitively quarantined for the known 'incubation' period and definately NOT sent off to do what they like.

 

lets not forget that Johnson by and large continued with very lax international hubs checks throughout

We STILL dont have temperature scanners at International hubs.

Edited January 21, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Inflammatory micro clots in blood of individuals suffering from Long COVID -- ScienceDaily

WWW.SCIENCEDAILY.COM

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Researchers have found an overload of various inflammatory molecules, 'trapped' inside insoluble microscopic blood clots (micro clots), in the...

 

[honeybee13]

Thoughts from Stephen Reicher of Indie SAGE on removing all restrictions.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

just as Omicron BA-2 is seemingly RAPIDLY surpassing Omicron BA-1 in infections

 

We dont yet know if BA-2 is more deadly .. let alone Phi

 

see Tom Peacock and -

 

New Cases of Omicron Sub-Variant Detected

WWW.MEDINDIA.NET

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In Israel 20 cases of a new sub-variant of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of COVID have been detected.

 

and

 

https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1484190295453581314/photo/1

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

Covid cases week after Christmas triple official figure, data shows

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

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Government coronavirus dashboard recorded an average of 173,400 cases between 26 December to 1 January but Office for National Statistics...

 

[honeybee13]

Here's an article on living with covid.

 

Reaching for military metaphors won’t help Britain learn to live with Covid | Philip Ball | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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There will be no ‘victory’ or ‘armistice day’ – the reality of how pandemics end is far more complicated than that, says the science writer Philip Ball

 

[honeybee13]

This is fairly unusual for the ONS, I think. I'm not sure who it's aimed at but it's a good explanation.

 

ONS blog - To say only 17,000 people have died from COVID-19 is highly misleading

CONTENT.GOVDELIVERY.COM

 

[tobyjugg2]

Its spurious HB

For example if a person had diabetes, it would be on a death certificate - so the claim they didn't die from Covid

It isnt the ONS claiming that HB, its persons misrepresenting bits of data without context

 

 

More convoluted is the claims that the current rate of all deaths is below the pre-pandemic level, which although true in isolation, isnt actually properly informative :

example that 'ordinary' death  rates were steadily falling,

and a moderate flu epidemic killed quite a few boosting the figures in the samples zone

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I wasn't saying the ONS backed the figures, I posted the article because they're saying the opposite and expanding on how they reach their figures.

[tobyjugg2]

I apologies HB, I just glanced at the blog and seen a few claims like it

[honeybee13]

We've all seen them. It's good that the ONS is putting the information out there.

[BazzaS]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Its spurious HB

For example if a person had diabetes, it would be on a death certificate - so the claim they didn't die from Covid

It isnt the ONS claiming that HB, its persons misrepresenting bits of data without context

 

 

Ahh, more unsupported piffle regarding stats ....... so, I shall again ask you to "put your money where your mouth is" (not that I expect you to be able to show that you actually understand the real world detail for that which you pontificate about!)

 

James Tucker appears to understand the process, but doesn't give the details, so, with your expertise, you can illuminate us.

 

So, for  death within 28 days of a diagnosis of Covid:

Which section of the certificate would diabetes be in then, if you are saying it would be on the death certificate ?

Which section do the ONS actually use when deciding what to classify as the cause of death (for creating the statistics) (So, if diabetes is on there does it actually influence the ONS stats??)

 

While we are on a roll:

If those people are wrong to say diabetes should be on the certificate: Do you think diabetes should be on the certificate or not?

If you do think it should be on there, which section do you think should diabetes be in, and why?

 

How about if they had Covid within the last 28 days, but had recovered, were out shopping and had a heart attack (and then a fatal cardiac arrest) in a store:

same questions but for both

a) Covid, and

b) diabetes.

 

How about if they had had Covid within the last 28 days. but had recovered, were going out shopping but got hit by a bus while crossing the road, suffering fatal injuries.

Same questions (again, both for Covid and diabetes) which section and why.

 

If you are saying people misrepresent the data : for those examples, can you correctly / accurately classify that data (all the sections of the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death [MCCD}), so that ONS can collate it and report on it correctly  ....... (as its easy to spot off about certification, but even those who actually do it sometimes get these issues wrong!)

 

..... I suspect you won't be able to answer the above, and will ignore the questions or skate over them with a trite reply , but bonus questions if you can :

a) which are 'unnatural deaths' (and why)?

b) Which should be reported to Her Majesty's Coroner?

 

Don't forget, if you get it wrong on any of the MCCD's issued the way you would have it, a GRO Registrar might HAVE to refuse the MCCD (causing the Registrant distress because they can't register the death after all.......and it goes to the coroner when the family aren't expecting it.)

 

So, these aren't solely academic concepts

A) Accurate aggregated ONS data is important for health care planning, and

B) each MCCD that a Registrar has to refuse adds misery to an already grieving family.

Edited January 26, 2022 by BazzaS

[honeybee13]

Bazza, I know this isn't directly connected to the above posts but has anyone calculated if the limit of within 28-days of a covid diagnosis has made a significant difference to the mortality figures?

[unclebulgaria67]

Thought that death certificate information quality had been subject to discussion long before Covid.

 

I have seen death certs where all conditions that might have been relevant at time of death were recorded, even though they did not appear relevant to me.  For example someone died of heart failure,  but the cert also noted diabetes. The diabetes had only recently been diagnosed in the months before death and this was only the type where diet/exercise required attention.

 

Not sure about the 28 days issue other than I thought this was a long standing data point.

[tobyjugg2]

16 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

This is fairly unusual for the ONS, I think. I'm not sure who it's aimed at but it's a good explanation.

 

ONS blog - To say only 17,000 people have died from COVID-19 is highly misleading

CONTENT.GOVDELIVERY.COM

 

 

Perhaps what that does actually tell us is that at least 17,000 people in robust good health with no other issues whatsoever have died of covid

 

and thats died, not just got ill/been on a ventilator/had health destroyed ... thats actually died despite being in perhaps exceptionally good health

Edited January 27, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Talk on the street is that the Gray report may not be out until Monday. Johnson is due to go on a[nother] day trip hundreds of miles from London today. Tory MPs have been on a single line whip since yesterday and could be going back to their constituencies from this afternoon.

 

It seems the report is being run past lawyers, HR and other experts to make sure all of it can be published, which is what Sue Gray is said to want. Meanwhile, supporters of the PM are starting to talk about a summary being issued instead. I can see why but I think there could be a furore about what will doubtless be seen an attempted cover up.

[tobyjugg2]

Wheres he going?

Argentina - where they might not extradite him?

 

Johnson still being out of jail is a bad example to show the millions of lesser criminals.

[hightail]

4 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Perhaps what that does actually tell us is that at least 17,000 people in robust good health with no other issues whatsoever have died of covid

That's how I read it TJ except for those who died of completely unrelated causes that just happened to be within 28 days of a Covid diagnosis.  There will be some in that category.  For others with underlying conditions I think it's fair to say they might/possibly/probably still be alive but for Covid.  Some would not be.

Edited January 27, 2022 by hightail

[tobyjugg2]

4 hours ago, hightail said:

That's how I read it TJ except for those who died of completely unrelated causes that just happened to be within 28 days of a Covid diagnosis.

 

??? Not sure on your meaning there HT.

Looks as blurred as some of mine do when I re-read them and think 'well that was as clear and concise as a mudslide. :-)

 

The query that 17.000 answer was to was asking how many people died of covid with no other causes wasnt it?

Around 176,000 people have died with Covid at least as a significant contributing factor to the death, not an incidental mention is my understanding.

So thats about 10% of the covid deaths seem to be fit and healthy people (vaccination status - dunno)

 

 

Like the recent response from the real NHS that people listed as hospital admissions with Covid were admitted primarily for Covid, not just tested positive while there with a sore backside or broken leg as some in various places seem to be trying to infer..

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

8 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

 

Johnson is due to go on a[nother] day trip hundreds of miles from London today.

 

Seems hes in Wales

Can we get Drakeford to send a platoon of dragoon guards to overwhelm his protection team and arrest him or at least slap the report hes running from in his hands

 

8 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

 

It seems the report is being run past lawyers, HR and other experts to make sure all of it can be published,

 

 

Not certain of the ins and outs - but I thought the met had already declared it OK, surely AFTER CPS advice?.

Isnt that definitive law wise?

Theres only politicking aside from that - and thats Johnsons decisions and demands

Edited January 27, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

24 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Around 176,000 people have died with Covid at least as a significant contributing factor to the death, not an incidental mention is my understanding.

There will be some who were +ve for Covid but it made no real difference, it wasn't why they died.  Not many but there will be. 

[tobyjugg2]

2 minutes ago, hightail said:

There will be some who were +ve for Covid but it made no real difference, it wasn't why they died.  Not many but there will be. 

 

I dont believe that is the case HT

Please re-read

 

With the 176,000 my understanding is that Covid was at least a significant factor in the death - NOT just incidental.

eg if they didnt have covid, the probably wouldnt have died at that tijme.

 

With the 17,000 Covid was apparently the ONLY factor

 

 

[hightail]

My father had it 'mentioned on the death certificate'.  He had advanced esophageal cancer.  Covid did not kill him, cancer did.  If it hastened his death it was by a couple of days at most.  The same would be true of anyone who caught it in hospital if they were admitted because of trauma with absolutely no other issue.

Edited January 27, 2022 by hightail

[tobyjugg2]

My sympathies and condolances

but you even admit that in that case it probably accelerated his passing, if only by a small amount.

 

Perhaps consider balancing that with all the deaths, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic, where no Covid test was done at all? and the death certificate just said heart attack or pneumonia or complications due to advanced age ... the list goes on

Edited January 27, 2022 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I'm very sorry about your father, HT.

 

TJ, another way to assess this is the excess mortality figure published by the government. It used to be Chris Giles of the FT and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries who also published them, but I haven't looked lately.