Mutating Corona Virus

[hightail]

On raw numbers it does sound awful but when I look at who's infected I'm not worried.  The point of restrictions was always to protect the NHS, at least that's what we were told.  Vaccination appears to have worked in that regard stopping severe disease so infection rate raw data isn't what matters.

[tobyjugg2]

and shapps wants to 'scrap costly pcr tests for travellers'

 

Well. as there is no reason whatsoever apart from profiteering of Tory pals behind the cost of those expensive compulsory (by tory gov) pcr tests ... which should cost no more than 15-20 quid a piece maximum - probably less

What he really means is he wants to dump any tests and get back to infecting the herd in time for the next outbreaks peak

 

 

Grant Shapps wants to scrap costly PCR tests for travellers by half-term | Travel & leisure | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Shift in policy in England would mean such Covid tests being replaced by cheaper lateral flow ones

 

[hightail]

If that peak doesn't cause severe illness or death in people then where's the problem?  At the moment we have very high levels of infection in particular groups for obvious reasons and other than kids being off school it doesn't appear to be anywhere near as bad as was predicted.

[honeybee13]

One problem that isn't always mentioned is Long Covid, HT. A huge number of people are suffering from that.

[hightail]

Yes, long covid is an issue but is it one which should shut the country down for ever?  Is it happening in the vaccinated or younger children?  If not (as I suspect) then are we close to the point where we have to consider Covid endemic and live with it?  Through 2020 this was a dangerous disease which killed people and brought the NHS to its knees.  That's not where we are any more.  I understand the fear in people of going back there, nobody wants that, but a fear of a situation which no longer exists in its original form mustn't stop us moving forward. 

 

We will never be Covid free.  Zero Covid isn't an option, even New Zealand which was perfectly placed to keep it out is having to accept that. 

[honeybee13]

I wasn't suggesting closing the country down. I just think there should be more mitigating measures - decent ventilation, masks and so on and the UK shouldn't solely be relying on vaccinations or, as some people are suspecting, herd immunity for kids by infection.

 

I'm not sure what you think the solution is, do you think everyone should just tough it out, HT?

[unclebulgaria67]

The problem this Winter won't just be Covid, but it will be Flu and all of the other viruses that were not in circulation due to all of the Covid safety measures

 

For this reason, I think it is highly likely that plan b wil be triggered at some point with a lockdown.

[tobyjugg2]

Increased spread might not cause vast amounts of severe illness at the moment

BUT increased spread = increased mutation and new variants, and new variants that spread have learned to evade vaccination,

and new variant vaccines have proven 'problematic'

Masks, space and ventilation work against ALL variants and spread - but only IF widely implemented.

 

 

and although the articles like the following wont say it, I will. Dodgy PCR tests/quality of testing wont help at all,

any more than NOT testing inbound (re)entrants to the country

 

"according to a regional public health official, after a number of cases where people tested positive using lateral flow tests – but then negative with PCR.

Anomalies have been reported by people in south-west England over the past week, with one public health official saying they were aware of a “high number” of inconsistent test results, according to reports by the i newspaper."

 

 

 

Isolate if you have Covid symptoms but negative PCR, says local health official | Coronavirus | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Advice follows discovery of anomalies in which people had positive lateral flow tests but negative lab results

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, hightail said:

Yes, long covid is an issue but is it one which should shut the country down for ever?  Is it happening in the vaccinated or younger children? 

 

Its not black and white, one or the other HT, and I think it a HUGE mistake to think in those terms.

There are sensible mitigations, for example like masks on public transport, which allow the options of middle paths to be trodden

 

The problem needs to be (and should always have been - but i do believe charity begins at home) as a world wide problem - not nations sitting on millions of doses they cant use, and shafting their neighbors. I think the UK has been one of the very worst examples of that, and sadly others are doing the same - and the UK is reaping the fallout of that after rather stupidly pissing on its necessary supply chain partners.

 

We are NOT energy sufficient (oil or energy - we rely on Frances nuclear energy, Russian gas, and middle eastern oil) - and those shortfalls cant be addressed in a few years let alone months.

 

We would struggle to be food sufficient even if Johnson hadn't just stabbed half or more of our farming industry in the back

 

We aren't even PPE or pcr sufficient despite the time we've had - due to profiteering middlemen pals getting preference for PPE while existing UK sources were ignored rather than developed.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Oh and regarding long covid in children, I have long tended to look to sources other than the UK for evidence, as the evidence I see from the UK indicates selectively not looking for what they don't want - and claiming 'I don't recognise that' from known liars.

 

so - lets look at a repeatedly demonstrated valuable, coherent, comprehensive, well managed and reported ...  and honest (as far as I can see) source:

 

Israel reports that 11.2 percent of all children infected with SARS-CoV-2 suffer from long COVID - World Socialist Web Site

WWW.WSWS.ORG

---

Despite the lie that vaccination of adults “protects” children, countries with high vaccination rates experience a surge in COVID-19 cases among...

 

[honeybee13]

The UK is leading in Europe atm, with covid cases and deaths.

 

Covid capital: Cases in UK now five times higher than in France, Germany and Spain : CityAM

WWW.CITYAM.COM

---

The UK has become the Covid capital of Europe with daily case numbers soaring above 36,000 according to the latest government figures.

 

[tobyjugg2]

shows whos policies are working better I think HB.

 

While I was looking for some UK based figures on long covid in children, about the atrocious best I could find from UK sources (compare these to the Israeli reports) apart from a few very out of date limited studies which take little account of other than original strain was :

* Its somewhere between 2 - 14%, but we assume that its the lower end based on assuming children who were sick would probably report it and I see no evidence of that so thats good enough to support my desired outcome

- and even that is if the kids could get to see a doctor for something not perceived as life threatening/emergency, if the doctor didn't diagnose it as 'growing pains, cold or such and come back if it hasn't passed with puberty, and the outstanding fact that those who prefer to see it that way haven't bothered to note or look - as demonstrated by the lack of actual figures and plethora of outlandish/outrageous assumptions

Edited October 10, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

I mean, look at this shoddy pile of crap full of assumptions based on negligible actual reality. yet it is referenced by many other UK statements..

 

"The views about long COVID in children were collected from seven young people aged 13- to 18-years-old, five families whose children, aged 10- to 16-years-old, have long COVID or suspected long COVID, and four GPs and three paediatricians, between 9 March and 30 April 2021. "

 

Call that a study? I call it a farce, probably not warranting a C grade paper for a 15 year olds mock exams.

Note to student: Paper was supposed to entail 6-10 hours work.

 

 

July: Long Covid in children | News and features | University of Bristol

WWW.BRISTOL.AC.UK

---

The clinical definition of long COVID in children is at present very limited and poorly understood by doctors, according to a new report published today...

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Its a simple fact that UK stats on this are hard to come by?

Astonishing in itself,  as waaaay back in Dec 2020 there were estimated to be 300,000 people with effects from Covid lasting more than 5 weeks  .. yet rather than target identifying the issue - it largely gets buried - undoubtedly to allow (in)credible denial seems to me.

 

.. 'I dont recognise that issue' say the Johnsonets : because you've deliberated not looked or you've buried it says I

 

Updated estimates of the prevalence of long COVID symptoms - Office for National Statistics

WWW.ONS.GOV.UK

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

So what is the solution?  On this forum herd immunity keeps getting mentioned as a negative thing so if that isn't an option what is?  Permanent restrictions?  If we don't want herd immunity why are we vaccinating the herd?

Edited October 10, 2021 by hightail

[tobyjugg2]

There is no such thing as herd immunity to covid for the current adult generations

- There might be in 10 years with vaccine development and /or 100,000,000 deaths - there isnt now.

 

Stop listening to prats like Johnson who say if not now - when - when the real issue is not that not now

 

 

Start there.

Edited October 10, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

5 hours ago, hightail said:

So what is the solution?  On this forum herd immunity keeps getting mentioned as a negative thing so if that isn't an option what is?  Permanent restrictions?  If we don't want herd immunity why are we vaccinating the herd?

 

My view is that herd immunity by vaccination is a good thing. Much more debatable is herd immunity by infection which HMG has played with more than once and risks killing people or making them ill for a long time.

 

I'm sure BazzaS has a much better explanation if he has time to get here. In the meantime, this article from the BMJ looks like an intelligent explanation.

 

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/16/kit-yates-how-can-we-reach-herd-immunity/

 

[tobyjugg2]

Nice and simple:

 

That sort of herd immunity can only be achieved with a more 'stable' (less change) infection and one with a VERY high level of immunity to reinfection once infected

 

COV has neither

The best we can hope for is low levels of severe illness once infected/inoculated, and the demonstrated mutation levels alone make that unlikely

 

 

It IS possible that we will go through this winter without severe outcomes, despite well over a 100 people a DAY currently still dying from it in the UK alone even before the peak infection projection times .. I put the odds of that at less than 20%

I think it far more likely that very damaging breakthroughs, reinfections and mutations will occur.

 

[tobyjugg2]

As far as I am aware, the lowest estimate for HIT (herd immunity threshold) is around 83% (of the population - NOT just adults) - for the original strain.

Even the current mutations have double the R0 of that calculation.

 

Inoculation appears to be only halving the spread (on its own) although other mitigations like those still working from home, and the minority still wearing masks is almost certainly making that look better than it actually is - that symptoms are less in most is also hiding that.

 

and even that doesn't take into account what is occurring with the virus spreading and mutating through kids and low symptomatic infections in inoculated people - and those who are symptomatic but will starve and lose their homes if they stop working.

[BazzaS]

83 % for herd immunity implies an initial Ro (should be a subscript ‘o’) of 6.

 

If current Rt (again subscript!) is “double that” then that would be 12, and have a herd immunity requirement of 91.7 %

 

these figures assume no change in variant changing host antibody protection or changing Rt : change those parameters and the level of coverage to give herd immunity changes, too.

[honeybee13]

I know you're very learned on these matters and I'm not, Bazza, but I didn't really follow your post.

[unclebulgaria67]

The problem appears to be underlying health conditions.

 

Even if 100% of a population have been vaccinated, Covid same as other viruses, will cause hospitalisations and deaths.

 

Booster vaccinations for Covid and also flu vaccinations appear to be critical in getting the country through the next 6 months, to reduce risk of Hospitals being overun, which might well require a lockdown and/or safety measures to be implemented.

[tobyjugg2]

and as already mentioned covid + flu season is on the way - which due to lockdowns and mitigations we didn't see last year thank god,

.. I've no real idea how that will work out, but I'm pretty sure it wont be good

.. although reportedly and sensibly record levels of flu jabs are being offered

[unclebulgaria67]

Pregnant women who have not had vaccine make up a FIFTH of the most ill Covid patients figures show  | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Medical experts urged hesitant mothers-to-be to get the Covid jab - warning they put themselves and their babies at risk of severe...

 

[tobyjugg2]

Timely:

- the one place where its hard to cover up/ignore the issue - and the figures stated seem to tie up with ALL the generally reported stats - so the stats seem to be claiming no-one outside of the NHS is affected by this - which is clearly utter bollocks:

 

"As many as 125,000 NHS staff may be affected by persistent symptoms."

 

""The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week revealed more than 1.1 million people were now reporting lasting symptoms from a Covid-19 infection, with 405,000 suffering its effects for more than a year.

"The meeting was told that around 6,000 referrals were being made in each four-week period, with 4,000 specialist assessments and 5,000 follow-up appointments a month."

 

 

Health secretary concerned over rising long Covid numbers

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

There are around 6,000 people being referred to Long Covid clinics every month

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by tobyjugg2